The cryptocurrency market could soon reach its lowest point, with a 70% probability of this happening before June, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen. The timing of this downturn largely hinges on the outcome of ongoing global tariff negotiations, particularly the reciprocal import tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump. These tariffs, aimed at addressing the country’s $1.2 trillion trade deficit and boosting domestic manufacturing, are adding to the mounting uncertainty in financial markets.
On April 2, Trump revealed new tariffs that are expected to further disrupt global markets already grappling with previous trade-related announcements. As the negotiations continue, experts are closely monitoring their potential impact on both traditional and digital financial markets. Barthere notes that the outcome of the trade discussions will be critical in determining when the crypto market reaches its lowest point. Nansen’s research suggests a 70% chance that cryptocurrency prices will hit their bottom between now and June.
Currently, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading significantly lower than their highs for the year, with Bitcoin down 15% and Ethereum down 22%. As market sentiment remains subdued, investors are taking a cautious approach. Bitcoin, for instance, has been trading between $82,000 and $85,000, showing limited movement following a period of consolidation in the first quarter. A breakout above $84,500 would likely signal more positive momentum, while support is seen at the $82,000 level. Some analysts are even predicting a potential rise to $86,500 or $90,000 if sentiment improves.
Despite the prevailing caution, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains above the “extreme fear” threshold for the third consecutive session, indicating that while there may be some improvement in sentiment, investors remain hesitant to make significant moves in an uncertain environment. As a result, many are opting for a “wait and see” approach, holding off on major investments until the market outlook becomes clearer.
The ongoing volatility in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets highlights the growing interconnection between the two sectors amid global economic instability. With tariff negotiations continuing, investors are hopeful for a resolution that can provide much-needed clarity. Barthere believes that once the most difficult phase of these talks concludes, the crypto market may finally find a clearer path to recovery, signaling a potential bottom for assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
In summary, the trajectory of the cryptocurrency market remains deeply tied to the outcome of global trade discussions, and the coming months will likely determine the next major shift for digital currencies.
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