As of July 23, 2024, the combined coke inventory across two major ports stands at 1.474 million tons, marking a marginal decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week, which represents a decline of 0.14%.
The Indian Coal Ministry has set a robust coal production target of 1.08 billion tons for fiscal year 2025.
Since July, Daqin Railway has consistently transported over 1 million tons of coal daily. Meanwhile, Qinhuangdao Port, Tangshan Port, and Caofeidian Port have maintained their coal inventories above 24 million tons.
Tangshan City has completed the transformation of designated “no-burning zones” and “double-generation” areas, enforcing strict prohibitions against the sale and burning of coal.
Institutional Perspectives:
Guotou Anxin Futures noted that despite a resurgence in discussions about coke spot price fluctuations, futures prices continue to weaken, aiming to break downward. While molten iron production has slightly declined, demand for furnace materials remains subdued but stable. Pressure from accumulating steel inventories persists, necessitating alleviation of negative feedback expectations. On the supply side, coking profits have rebounded, prompting a slight increase in production startup, yet inventory pressures remain significant. Overall, the balance between spot supply and demand for coke remains steady, with coke exhibiting the lowest inventory and a healthy market structure among black products. Cost dynamics are showing signs of easing, coinciding with weakening sentiment in steel prices. Short-term volatility is expected to be modestly weak.
Ruida Futures reported stable coal prices entering furnaces, with most coke companies operating at a temporarily stable level. Destocking efforts for coke have progressed smoothly, resulting in low factory inventories. Terminal demand has begun to pick up slowly, although steel price declines have widened losses for steel mills. The resumption of coal mine operations following major meetings, coupled with transitions to new national rebar standards, continues to suppress production demand at steel mills. Market sentiment leans pessimistic, placing pressure on furnace materials. Strategically, Ruida Futures suggests cautious handling of the J2409 contract, anticipating subdued fluctuations and emphasizing rigorous risk management for investors.
This update reflects ongoing dynamics in the coal and coke sectors, influenced by production targets, regulatory measures, and market fluctuations, underscoring the complexities faced by stakeholders in the current economic climate.
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