China’s beef imports reached an all-time high in 2024, with the world’s largest importer of the red meat bringing in 2.87 million tons, a 5% increase over the previous year, according to recent customs data. While the country has become a dominant force in the global beef market, demand is slowing, and prices have dropped to their lowest levels since 2019, raising concerns that government intervention may be on the horizon.
Over the past five decades, China’s beef consumption has soared nearly 40-fold as the country’s growing middle class developed a taste for steak and hotpot dishes. However, a report from local consultancy Mysteel reveals a downturn in consumption last year as Chinese consumers, facing financial pressure, reduced their meat intake.
To address the drop in prices, China has increasingly turned to cheaper beef imports from Brazil and Argentina, strengthening trade and diplomatic ties with these countries. This shift has helped to replace more expensive beef from traditional suppliers like the United States and Australia. At the same time, China’s domestic beef production has surged, driven by a government push for greater self-sufficiency following disruptions in global supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite this, wholesale beef prices have fallen by 20% over the last two years, although beef remains roughly three times more expensive than pork or chicken.
Pan Chenjun, senior analyst at Rabobank, attributes the price drop to an oversupply of beef. “Overall supplies have jumped significantly, but consumption has not kept pace,” he noted. The rapid expansion in both imports and domestic production has created a surplus, exacerbating the market’s struggle.
The financial strain on local cattle farmers is evident, with around two-thirds of Chinese cattle farmers operating at a loss, according to the National Husbandry Association. The situation has led some farmers to exit the industry, threatening the sustainability of China’s beef production. In response, the government urged local authorities to offer subsidies to struggling farmers to prevent further damage to the sector.
In late December 2024, as beef prices continued to fall, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced an investigation into whether the surge in imports was harming local beef producers. The probe, expected to conclude within eight months, could be extended if necessary.
Imports now account for around 30% of China’s beef consumption, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture. If protectionist measures are introduced, it could impact key beef-exporting nations such as Brazil, Argentina, Australia, and the United States. These countries, particularly Brazil, which sends nearly half of its beef exports to China, could face significant challenges if China imposes restrictions on foreign beef.
While China could increase beef purchases from the US as a way to ease trade tensions with the US and President Donald Trump, it may instead prioritize the protection of domestic farmers and food security. This would reflect the government’s broader focus on food self-sufficiency, a critical issue for policymakers in Beijing. Moreover, premium beef cuts from the US have lost their appeal among Chinese consumers, who increasingly prefer affordable beef options, particularly in the growing number of all-you-can-eat hotpot restaurants.
The beef market’s dynamics are a critical issue for China’s policymakers as they balance domestic agricultural interests with international trade relationships, all while navigating the country’s changing consumer tastes.
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