Japan’s exports surged at an accelerated pace in February, driven by businesses rushing to fulfill orders before the anticipated implementation of higher tariffs by the United States. According to data released by the Ministry of Finance on Wednesday, the value of Japan’s exports rose 11.4% compared to the previous year, although slightly missing the median forecast of a 12.6% increase. Meanwhile, imports saw a minor dip of 0.7%, diverging from the predicted 0.8% increase.
As a result, Japan recorded a trade surplus of ¥584.5 billion ($3.9 billion), marking a shift back into the black after a prolonged period of deficits.
The increase in exports contributed to Japan’s economic growth in the last quarter of 2024, and momentum has continued into the early months of 2025. Experts suggest that part of the export uptick was fueled by companies striving to meet demand ahead of the new tariff hikes set to take effect in the U.S.
Yuichi Kodama, an economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute, noted, “Some of the growth in exports may be due to a rush of orders before the Trump tariffs came. However, it remains unclear how much of the increase can be attributed to this factor, especially since exports to the U.S. fell in volume.”
Breaking down the data by region, shipments to the U.S. rose 10.5% in value, but dipped by 3.3% in volume. Exports to China jumped by 14.1%, likely bolstered by the Lunar New Year celebrations, while exports to Europe fell by 7.7%.
The outlook for global trade remains uncertain, with escalating tariff wars between the U.S. and key trading partners such as Canada, Mexico, and China. The ongoing trade tensions could disrupt Japan’s trade relationships, especially given that the U.S. and China are its largest trading partners.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) revised its world growth forecast to 3.1% for 2025, citing turbulence in international trade flows.
Kodama expressed caution about the sustainability of export growth, saying, “While export values are increasing due to the impact of exchange rates, the slow growth in volume suggests that the current export strength may not last.”
February saw the yen average 154.61 per dollar, a 4.3% depreciation compared to the previous year, which contributed to the increase in export value.
Japan’s government has struggled to secure an exemption from the direct tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, despite a seemingly cordial meeting between Japanese and U.S. leaders in February. Recent attempts by Japan’s Trade Minister Yoji Muto to influence U.S. officials have yielded no significant results.
Japan’s manufacturers are already taking steps to mitigate the impact of potential tariffs. According to New survey, many companies have begun stockpiling goods in the U.S. ahead of the impending 25% auto levy, which is set to take effect in April.
In terms of export performance, cars, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and chips were the primary drivers in February, while the decline in crude oil and coal imports weighed on overall import figures.
Japan’s trade surplus with the U.S. stood at ¥918.8 billion in February, up 29% from the previous year. Exports of automobiles to the U.S. saw a notable increase of almost 14%. This comes amidst President Donald Trump’s ongoing criticism of the U.S. trade deficit with Japan, accusing Japan and China of gaining an unfair advantage through foreign exchange policies—allegations Japan has consistently denied.
The U.S. has also long cited Japan’s road safety standards as a non-tariff barrier that limits the export of U.S. automobiles to the Japanese market.
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