The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) sector is facing significant challenges in meeting its 2030 production targets, with production levels not accelerating as required, according to a report released Thursday by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
While European airlines are set to meet a 2% SAF usage mandate in their jet fuel this year, this figure is expected to rise to 6% by 2030. However, many airlines have expressed concerns over the high cost of SAF, which remains three to five times more expensive than conventional jet fuel.
BCG’s report reveals that airlines and airports are investing only a small fraction—between 1% and 3%—of their revenue or budget allocation toward SAF, with the high production costs and fuel prices continuing to hinder widespread adoption.
“We are moving in the right direction, but not at the pace needed to meet our goals,” said Pelayo Losada, Managing Director and Partner at BCG, in the co-authored report. The study surveyed over 500 executives from approximately 200 aviation-related companies.
“While we see clear progress in scaling the availability of SAF, there’s been a slowdown in the development of projects, with growing gaps in the commitments made by some companies,” Losada added.
Last month, it reported that low consumption rates and a lack of clear policy direction have caused delays in several SAF projects in China.
Despite the global aviation industry’s aim to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, and some countries implementing SAF mandates, the fuel accounted for only about 0.3% of global jet fuel production in 2024.
BCG’s report highlights a stark contrast between the rapid increase in SAF supply, which grew by 1,150% over the last three years, and the sharp decline in new production facility announcements—down by 50% to 70% between 2022 and 2023.
This slowdown, according to BCG, is primarily due to economic uncertainty, escalating energy prices, and higher operating costs.
As a result, BCG projects that SAF supply will fall 30% to 45% short of meeting the aviation industry’s 2030 targets.
Losada further noted that many industry participants have adopted a “someone else will fix this” mindset, urging the need for greater cross-industry collaboration to address the obstacles to SAF adoption.
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