Goldman Sachs has increased its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 to $3,300 per ounce, up from $3,100, citing stronger-than-expected inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and sustained demand from central banks.
The investment bank also revised its price range forecast, now predicting a range of $3,250 to $3,520 per ounce, up from a previous range of $3,100 to $3,300. This revision reflects ongoing bullish trends in gold markets, particularly driven by large-scale central bank purchases.
Goldman Sachs anticipates that major Asian central banks will continue their aggressive gold-buying strategies for the next three to six years as they work to meet projected gold reserve targets. The bank has raised its monthly central bank demand assumptions to 70 tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 50 tonnes, factoring in increased uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy and the expectation that China will maintain its rapid pace of gold acquisitions during this period.
Additionally, Goldman Sachs expects continued ETF inflows, supported by anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. The bank’s U.S. economists predict two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025 and one additional cut in the first half of 2026, a scenario that would underpin sustained demand for gold.
Two key upside risks could further drive gold prices higher. A recession-induced Fed rate cut cycle could push prices to $3,410 per ounce by the end of 2025, while increased investor demand for gold as a hedge could elevate ETF holdings back to pandemic-era levels, potentially driving prices to $3,680 per ounce.
While Goldman Sachs continues to recommend a long gold position, it highlights two potential events that could create more favorable entry points for investors. A potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine might trigger short-term speculative selling, but Goldman Sachs believes this would not have a lasting impact on global gold demand or supply. A sharp equity market sell-off could also lead to margin-driven gold liquidation, though this is expected to be short-lived as speculative positioning recovers, with central bank and ETF demand remaining resilient.
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